By: Jeff Meade

The lush Donegal countryside.

For most of us who fly to Ireland on the overnight flight out of JFK or Newark, our first view out the window of the plane as we begin the long descent into Shannon or Dublin comes just as dawn is breaking over the Emerald Isle. And the view is dazzling. We quickly discover that those 40 shades of green, about which we have heard so much, really do exist. And on a good day, 40 seems a conservative estimate.

We'll still have that breathtaking view for a time ... but for how long?

Global warming affects every country, but the impact could be especially telling on Ireland's environment. To find out how global warming might affect this lovely and fragile landscape, we posed a few questions for Rowan Fealy, a lecturer in the department of geography at the National University of Ireland, Maynooth. 

Fealy has published over 21 papers and chapters on all aspects of climate, climate change and its impacts. He will be one of three members of the Irish American Climate Project presenting "Shades of Green: The Impacts of Climate Change on Ireland" at Finnigan's Wake, 3rd and Spring Garden Streets, on Thursday, March 13, starting at 5 p.m. in the Quiet Man Room.

The presentation will include spectacular pictures of Ireland, helping to tell the simple, but emotional, story of how Irish climate and culture will likely change in the decades to come.  

Here's a preview:

Q. Changes are occurring all over the world, from small Pacific islands to the Arctic. Some of those changes are dramatic and visible. Are changes occurring in Ireland currently, and are they as dramatic?

A. Ireland has certainly witnessed changes in temperature and rainfall that are consistent with those occurring at the global scale. Mean annual temperatures have warmed by almost 3/4 of a degree (0.72 degrees C) over the last century, with the greatest warming evident during the winter months. These changes in temperature are also being reflected in a decrease in the number of frost days being recorded and in a shortening of the frost season length.

Changes in rainfall have also occurred. Having just spoken with two Americans who got drenched wet while on a golf holiday in Ireland, they experienced what we would call a soft Irish day! Globally, rainfall appears to be getting heavier in more northern locations, with drying occurring in southern regions. Basically, wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier. The observed rainfall data from Ireland appears to be consistent with the global picture, with places like Malin Head, in the north of the country, getting wetter, particularly during the winter months over the last century, while counties to the south and east, like Wexford and Waterford, appear to be getting drier during the summer months.

Changes in the variability of rainfall are also occurring. The wettest summer in 50 years was experienced on the east coast during the summer of 2007 (more than 200 percent wetter than average conditions in some locations), while October was the driest in over 30 years. Four of the five wettest years recorded at Malin Head occurred after 1990, while two of the driest occurred after 2000.

Q. One of Ireland's distinguishing characteristics—ask any tourist—is rainfall. How, if at all, do you see rainfall being affected by global warming, and what would be the impact on the nation as a whole? Is Ireland likely to be less green as a result?

A. Ireland owes its emerald green status primarily due to the relative abundance of rainfall, resulting in lush vegetation growing throughout the country. We have already witnessed changes to the character of Irish rainfall, the traditional soft Irish day where rainfall falls over many hours to more intense outbursts of heavy rain falling over shorter periods. This tendency is likely to continue as the atmosphere warms up due to global warming. During the summer of 2006, much of the southern half of the country experienced drought-like conditions with significant soil moisture deficits occurring, causing the vegetation to wilt and brown.

The projected changes in rainfall are likely to have a much greater impact on Ireland than projected increases in temperature, over the present century. Models suggest that regions in the midlands and to the north and west will continue to get wetter during the winter months, by almost 15 percent by the middle of this century, while regions to the south are likely to get much drier during the summer months. These seasonal and locational changes in rainfall will have a significant impact on water availability and supply. Increasingly, crops will have to be irrigated, placing an additional burden on the farming community, while large cities like Dublin are already looking to alternative sources of fresh water to supply water to meet the needs of its inhabitants.

Farmers will have to respond to changes in temperature and rainfall by growing new crops, while traditional staples like the potato may no longer be commercially viable to grow due to the prohibitive costs of irrigation. Crops such as maize are likely to replace grass as high energy fodder crops, while elephant grass is likely to become much more common on the Irish landscape in order to fulfill alternative energy requirements.

Erosion is likely to become a bigger issue, particularly in upland locations, if rainfall becomes more intense. If intense rainfall events are preceded by long periods of no rain, then bog bursts are likely to become much more common, such as those witnessed in Mayo and Galway during the autumn of 2003.

Q. Are certain areas of Ireland more vulnerable to climate change? I'm thinking specifically of the Burren.

A. Yes, certain parts of Ireland are likely to be more susceptible to climate change, both in terms of landscape changes and also in terms of the flora and fauna they support, such as the Burren. The Burren is a fragile environment, supporting many unique plants, which may respond negatively to changes in temperature and rainfall. Turloughs, or seasonally flooded limestone lakes, are also sensitive to changes in the level of the water table due to fluctuations in rainfall.

Peatlands will also be susceptible to changes in temperature and rainfall, particularly when a wet autumn follows a dry summer. This situation is likely to occur more often as a consequence of global warming. This is particularly bad news as peatlands store large quantities of carbon and, when destabilized, release this carbon back into the atmosphere, which will result in even more warming occurring.

Ecologically valuable machair (sand dune pasture) landscapes, located in the northwest of Ireland, will be especially vulnerable to changes in sea level and storminess, as will locations around the south and east coasts where the coastal material is comprised of soft sandy, easily erodible, material.

Q. How much of the change is attributable to Ireland itself? As of 2005, Ireland was generating 25 percent more greenhouse gases than it had promised under the Kyoto Protocol.

A. It is difficult, if not impossible, to ascertain this with any degree of certainty. On a per capita or per person basis, Irish people are responsible for emitting almost 17 tonnes of CO2 per annum, while people in the U.S. emit almost 23 tonnes of CO2 per annum on a per person basis. These compare to just 2 tonnes per annum from developing countries.

These levels of emissions place Ireland and the U.S. high up the league table of emissions on a per person basis. However, if we look at the absolute figures for both countries, Irish emissions are relatively small. This does not remove the burden of responsibility from Ireland that we have to bear for reducing our emissions. A tonne of CO2 will have the same warming effect whether it is emitted in Ireland, the U.S. or any other country for that matter.

Under our obligations as part of the Kyoto Protocol, the Irish government and, by default, the Irish taxpayer, will have to pay fines in the region of €200M because we have exceeded what was a very generous allowance in terms of our greenhouse gas emissions. 

Q. How much responsibility does the U.S. bear for climate change in Ireland?

A. As one of the largest emittors of greenhouse gases and as a country that has benefited economically from the burning of fossil fuels, the U.S. must shoulder a proportionate amount of responsibility for global climate change, whether it is occurring in Ireland, the Maldives or the U.S. However, there is hope here. If the U.S. as a whole was to move towards reducing its carbon emissions, in a similar manner to states like California, there would be a twofold benefit: we would see a significant reduction in global emissions, and the U.S., as one of the largest emittors, would demonstrate true leadership to other, less willing, countries to come to the table to agree internationally binding emissions reductions.

Q. What kinds of things, if any, could be done to forestall the damaging impact of climate change? And who would have to do it? Is it already too late?

A. It is not too late, but we need to act and act soon. If we can act soon, the cost of climate change can be minimized and the greater the benefit that will be derived. However, there is no one solution or silver bullet that can be implemented and we all have a part to play. As individuals we can become more energy efficient to reduce our carbon footprint, switch off lights not in use, walk to the shop rather than drive, take public transport where possible. Collectively, we can influence our politicians, let them know that we are gravely concerned about climate change and its possible impacts if left unmanaged. On the international front, the policy community need to agree on real, not token, emissions reduction strategies to ensure that we stave off the worst effects of climate change.

Q. What is the likely impact on Ireland, beyond the disappearance of native plant life? Will there be an impact on the local climate? The economy? Tourism?

A. There are likely to be some benefits, particularly in the agricultural sector, due to an expansion in the production area of warm-weather crop types. However, these are likely to be short-lived as increased temperatures will place additional stresses on vegetation. If accompanied by reductions in rainfall, as suggested by the climate models, these benefits will be quickly negated. Economic costs are likely to be significant. Insurance costs for homeowners in flood-prone areas—either by the sea or river—are likely to rise, with some locations becoming uninsurable due to a high frequency of flooding. Infrastructural costs, such as flood defenses and clean-up operations are likely to increase. Loss of land due to erosion or frequent flooding may require managed retreat or abandonment, with associated loss of value.

Despite the fact that Ireland is renowned for its abundant rainfall, it is deeply ironic that we may face significant seasonal water shortages as a consequence of climate change. This may even necessitate the introduction of water charges to maintain the necessary infrastructure to ensure a continuity of supply.

The effects of climate change on tourism are likely to be multifaceted. The unique character of the Irish landscape is likely to alter due to changes in rainfall and temperature which may alter tourist’s perceptions of Ireland as a lush green landscape. On the other hand, with increased temperatures in more traditional southern tourist locations like Spain and Portugal, Ireland may become a viable alternative sun destination.

Rowan Fealy's particular area of interest is in regional climate modeling and the uncertainties associated with “downscaling” global climate scenarios to the regional or local level. He is chairman of the Institute of European Affairs ’ working group on the Science of Climate Change and is a committee member of the Royal Irish Academy’s Irish Committee for Climate Change. He has participated in the Irish delegation reporting to a United Nations expert panel under the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as acting as an Irish representative/negotiator at meetings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).